Predictions for 2008

By Sean Fenlon on December 10, 2007


Predictions have become a favorite hobby of many bloggers:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=predictions+2007

This will be my first “Predictions” post, but I suspect I am as confident as a veteran prediction-blogger may be.

The Mortgage industry finds its footing, more so than the mortgage leads industry

Rational U.S. mortgage loans will be originated throughout 2008, and the volume will spike towards the second half of the year. However, the mortgage leads industry will continue to feel disruptive currents as the market of buyers from the mortgage industry is half that of 2006, and filtering twice as much.

The Housing Industry closes the gap between BID and ASK

In many markets, sales are off 30%+, but sale PRICES are off only 3% or less. This is a gigantic canyon between the spirit of buyers and sellers. This disparity will not last through 2008, thus average sale prices will drop, but sales growth rates will experience an uptick.

Online Education and traditional brick-and-mortar Education lines begin to blur

Adult consumers seek education for one dominant reason – a commitment to better education (costs) means greater career trajectories (rewards). This phenomenon is an evergreen, and more and more potential students are searching for education options online. Expect marketing dollars from the EDU vertical to continue to pour online.

Debt Consolidation Loans, Debt Counseling Services, and Debt Settlement Services skyrocket

Consumers literally have no idea what options exist for them in terms of help with their consumer debt. Companies that provide genuine and valuable services for consumers feeling the pain of debt will continue to emerge, prosper, and drive awareness.

Facebook become a more-discussed Internet company than Google

Perhaps this gets tagged as “duh” or “no brainer” in history, but as of today, the Facebook brand trend had not yet caught up to Google:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=google%2C+facebook&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Facebook and LinkedIn have (private) merger/acquisition conversations

I may have the names/faces wrong, but I have the right concept. A social networking leads will want to maintain separate brands for their B2B vs C2C social networks.

Mobile Advertising disappoints in 2008, but still remains a gigantic opportunity

CPM and CPC are not likely to gain any traction in mobile anytime soon; however, per-call pricing models will prosper. However, I do believe in the predictions that mobile advertising will represent a $10 Billion market by 2010

USA elects a new President

Probably another prediction filed under “duh,” especially since I will not predict a winner of the 2008 presidential election. I will predict, however, that DoublePositive will adapt in real time to the inclinations and directions of the winning candidate.

USA economy slows, but resists recession

Consumers represent over two thirds of the U.S. economy. No doubt, consumers are going to “feel it” in 2008. Lower house values, lower 401k growth rate, and indicators of lower job growth. All that said, the 2008 U.S. GDP is predicted to exceed that of 2007 by some amount.

“Second Layer” Technologies and Solutions will continue to emerge and dominate

I will save a more extensive explanation for a later blog post, but now, sample companies include:

SPF


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