By Sean Fenlon on January 1, 2009
I genuinely love being part of history.
I’m thrilled that I’ll be able to tell my grandchildren someday that I was alive and witnessed Joe Montana, Michael Jordan, Michael Phelps, the founding of Microsoft, the founding of Google, the books of Stephen Hawking, the rhythms of Don Ellis, the music of Pat Metheny, the style of Bobby McFerrin. I believe these are all names that will be in the same history books that my grandchildren will be reading.
But most of all, I’m thrilled to be alive. I’m thrilled to be “in the game.” Every morning, I wake up, I’m “in the game” and that’s a blessing.
That said, 2008 may be the most “historic” year since 9/11/2001, 1995 (Netscape IPO), 1968 (putting a man on the moon), 1945 (the end of WWII), 1929 (the Great Depression), or 1776 (the founding of a nation based upon “Freedom”). I can’t wait to tell my grandchildren that not only did I live through 2008, but prospered.
That’s not to say I got it all right…
I made 10 Predictions about 2008 at the end of 2007:
I nailed some and got some others wrong, but was directionally correct overall…
PREDICTION: The Mortgage industry finds its footing, more so than the mortgage leads industry
Yup. Nailed this one. If you are surviving and making money in the mortgage industry now, you’ve figured it out. You’re a lifer.
The mortgage leads industry is still scrambling to figure out how to reclaim its 2007 size. Big banks stopped (or virtually stopped) buying leads. Remaining lead buyers filter more and buy less than ever before.
PREDICTION: The Housing Industry closes the gap between BID and ASK
Still not there. Mortgage rates are ridiculously low, but prices have not yet dropped enough to get things moving. There are anecdotal reports of home prices dropping 30% or more (which WILL get things moving), but this trend should be moved into the 2009 prediction category.
PREDICTION: Online Education and traditional brick-and-mortar Education lines begin to blur
This one is half-right and half-wrong. The online/offline lines actually became MORE prominent with respect to advertising, marketing, and sales/enrollments in for-profit post-secondary, but the schools are seeing the lines blur on the delivery side of education. I hope this distinction makes sense to the readers.
PREDICTION: Debt Consolidation Loans, Debt Counseling Services, and Debt Settlement Services skyrocket
Another half-right, half-wrong prediction here. Advertisng, Marketing, and Sales of consumer-debt-help-solutions-products did indeed skyrocket but sadly their value to consumers did not.
PREDICTION: Facebook become a more-discussed Internet company than Google
Yup. Nailed this one:
My next social networking prediction will be squarely based upon Twitter, but it will take more than 2009 for Twitter to catch Google or Facebook on this graph. FriendFeed will also be in the mix.
Let’s not forget, however, that despite the trends graph most daily Facebook users STILL use Google to get there.
PREDICTION: Facebook and LinkedIn have (private) merger/acquisition conversations
I think they did, but I have no evidence. I did however get the direction correct. The name was “Plaxo” instead of “LinkedIn” but apparently a deal never got done: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/01/14/plaxo-and-facebook-merger-rumors-false-so-far/
PREDICTION: Mobile Advertising disappoints in 2008, but still remains a gigantic opportunity
This was a terrible prediction because I did not define anything. What does “mobile” mean? Phone? Oh yeah, DP dominates the demand side there. Mobile carriers continue to dominate the supply side but mobile ad serving is dead.
PREDICTION: USA elects a new President
My guy didn’t win (frankly, my guy didn’t run). I am however emphatically cheering our new President. I believe he will inspire! Nailed the prediction that DoublePositive will adapt to the new President in real time! :-)
PREDICTION: USA economy slows, but resists recession
Looks like I blew this one. BIG time. We’ll have to wait and see “how long” before the size of my miss here is fully-calculated.
PREDICTION: Second Layer Technologies and Solutions will continue to emerge and dominate
DUH! Just change name to “Next Layer” and you’ll never be wrong. Horizontal vs. Vertical. The next horizontal always occurs more frequently than the next vertical.